Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f6142d378872126fc8a6c10191e7e4be2bb2dfa05155f07093ac4ba1b78cbff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3acd…3a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 897.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 44c | 858.07$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.35 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 45c | 593.42$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.94 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 46c | 388.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 46c | 388.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 219.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 55c | 172.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 165.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 162.47$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 162.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 145.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 141.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 141.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 34c | 118.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…8945backed Yes | 33c | 112.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked No | 64c | 111$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 105.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a05…d7b9backed Yes | 32c | 103.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 32c | 95.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 90.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 71.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 61.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…ce62backed Yes | 23c | 55.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 32c | 55.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 65c | 53.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3043…4ee7backed Yes | 32c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 50.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6297backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 47c | 46.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 43c | 45.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 31c | 45.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 64c | 45.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 56c | 41.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 39.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 30c | 37.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 38c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…2656backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 27.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…a64fbacked No | 67c | 25.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96be…a372backed Yes | 51c | 24.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…81c0backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.