Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddee77a748c4d5d7a3531fef422388e81082203236f157a12b1968c6226815de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 45c | 509.02$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.25 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 57c | 328.53$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 30c | 230.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 214.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 31c | 190$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 59c | 173.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 51c | 162.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 149.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 139.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 135.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 34c | 133.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 57c | 119.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 33c | 117.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 57c | 111.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 106.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 104.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 14c | 103.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 101.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 63c | 100.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 90.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 79.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 79.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 79.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 57c | 77.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…dd6bbacked Yes | 16c | 74.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 71.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 70.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 50c | 65.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 52c | 65.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 53c | 59.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 31c | 56.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 59c | 54.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 39c | 50.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 50.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 54c | 50.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 63c | 47.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…8945backed Yes | 56c | 46.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 40c | 46.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 45c | 43.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 51c | 42.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 41c | 42.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 43c | 41.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 55c | 39.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 47c | 39.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 36c | 39.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 54c | 36.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3043…4ee7backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 38c | 30.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 51c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 39c | 29.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 37c | 28.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 52c | 25.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ca08backed Yes | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 74c | 21.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 65c | 18.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…20e0backed Yes | 64c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 77c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 13.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.