Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8eb3f1d6d0d6cc5cda5cef93b2ddedc0d43c710142521aefe220a295adc175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof 1win, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 3c | 12,288$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.91 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 1win | 0c | 3,688$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…f0a8backed 1win | 52c | 3,107$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 1,866$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.03 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 1,848$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed 1win | 1c | 1,690$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed 1win | 63c | 634.55$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.3 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed 1win | 52c | 615.38$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 52c | 556.33$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.26 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed 1win | 50c | 500$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…b1d7backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 400.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 360.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…e3a9backed 1win | 51c | 287.24$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 31c | 281.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…f1c8backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 249.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 210.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed 1win | 13c | 200.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed 1win | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked 1win | 50c | 199.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 191.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 174.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed 1win | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…fd20backed 1win | 9c | 158.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 120.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked 1win | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed 1win | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…d755backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 97.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…7a4bbacked 1win | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…0e69backed 1win | 57c | 85.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed 1win | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…846ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked 1win | 44c | 58.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed 1win | 50c | 58.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 49c | 56.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…1cf4backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 56.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed 1win | 50c | 55.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed 1win | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed 1win | 51c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 46.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…baa3backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…9168backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…2fd8backed 1win | 28c | 40.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed 1win | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked 1win | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…beafbacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e2…c561backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…0429backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 36cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 38.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked 1win | 51c | 36.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 35.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed 1win | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 23.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d1…4e28backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.