TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,051 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3234…8b1abacked No56c2,818$1,577 inLost-$1,577.097644.7%34 W · 42 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes48c1,080$519 inWon+$560.119,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed No2c954.2$15 inLost-$14.541085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes44c771.22$341 inWon+$429.82,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked No2c502.02$10 inLost-$10.0211914.3%17 W · 102 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+289.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ae…7aa6backed Yes48c477.08$229 inWon+$248.087048.6%34 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes44c280$123 inWon+$156.84,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes44c250$110 inWon+$14050337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes44c230.96$102 inWon+$128.798,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked No53c102.8$54 inLost-$54.489455.3%52 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked No53c66.98$35 inLost-$35.572247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9956…44e0backed No56c49$27 inLost-$27.443571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No25c46$11 inLost-$11.412,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed No56c35.71$20 inLost-$2021853.2%116 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a7…40f7backed No52c28.84$15 inLost-$15862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590a…c459backed Yes47c25.28$12 inWon+$13.411451.8%59 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.