MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfae56a992acf352441974eda9e340d830977bc7b49f2b340d5f207f29dfb26c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 4,175$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 2,791$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 1,974$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.71 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 51c | 1,651$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.85 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 1,186$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,152$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.12 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 738.18$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 706.01$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 576$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 458.56$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 410.43$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…97b6backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 363.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Chicago Cubs | 6c | 338.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.16 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 327.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 260$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 247.39$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.11 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 227.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 163.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago White Sox | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 124.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 111.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 95.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs | 25c | 95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 89.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 88.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 86.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Chicago Cubs | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 57.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 48.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 44.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 44.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 41.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 38.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 32.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 32.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 32.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 25.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.