MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd7f5df4a14a1b0ec35354ed910acf8c538d5e556c8389fcb58bb6a45c32e5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 2,631$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 2,153$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 1,649$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 981.28$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Under | 19c | 667$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 27c | 641.63$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 551.05$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.83 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Under | 40c | 399$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 24c | 260.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.69 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 21c | 244$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 76c | 199.27$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.45 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 63c | 197$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 44c | 181.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 122.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 74c | 109.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 99.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 88.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 32c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 73.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 28c | 68.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 23c | 63.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 76c | 55.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 24c | 51.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 29c | 49.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 29c | 49.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 39.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 37.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 40c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 68c | 21.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 73c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.