MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x657138d34732a3211ea52d01efbb33e1af84aad58ff3a9277c997e302dee1699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 6,283$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 6,200$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 1,154$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Chicago White Sox | 78c | 1,007$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.74 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 622.48$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Chicago White Sox | 50c | 476.76$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.38 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 471.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 350.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 341.3$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 315$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 45c | 211.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Chicago White Sox | 73c | 152$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Chicago White Sox | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 86.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago White Sox | 51c | 70.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 69.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 69.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago White Sox | 50c | 58.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 32.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 30.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 28.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 27.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 26.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 22.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.