NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 25.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa3d45726580e7a37c9b4ea450de039a5ae120dbd3624984423bf614a9a6328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Under | 52c | 425$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 425$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 45c | 270.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc290…bc01backed Over | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…2b92backed Under | 50c | 191$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 51c | 152$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 148.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 54c | 146$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 49c | 137$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 50c | 119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 50c | 93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Over | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 25.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Cowboys won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Cowboys won
- Cowboys Team Total: O/U 21.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. RaidersCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 49.5Under won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.