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NFL · resolved market

Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 49.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$522,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$514,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under49c137,433$67,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,004.3586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Over52c100,000$52,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,0001942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Under55c84,400$46,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,054.5427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over43c67,176$29,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,155.2675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Over47c50,150$23,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,606.513843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Over50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0005550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c45,245$21,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,939.273651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under49c34,044$16,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,225.1344652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Over45c20,010$9,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,006.144264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Over45c20,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0003135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Over45c15,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7502245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Over76c13,727$10,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,432.712369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c11,246$5,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,145.341,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over46c10,748$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,992.2124056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Under48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Under48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.991861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Over46c8,400$3,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,874.4928447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over47c7,700$3,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,626.783447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over51c7,626$3,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,900.8547348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over45c7,387$3,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,329.0722450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under53c5,192$2,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,440.454456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Over48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c3a…9ec0backed Over48c3,696$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.141450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Over36c3,423$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.3818044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2900…af64backed Under53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under48c2,900$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.0468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over46c2,894$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.0683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b2…df60backed Over52c2,885$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+43.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Over47c2,010$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.4114945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9407152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Under55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.181435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under21c1,673$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.9531543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under54c1,508$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.8764747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over47c1,452$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.471,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Over49c1,384$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6785139.2%20 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over46c1,096$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.1853253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Under52c1,062$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.588351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Under48c1,028$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.4614154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over49c1,000$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.5165048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Over51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5102360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under49c921.62$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.242040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81a6…9c48backed Under55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.093834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Over50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020949.8%104 W · 105 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under47c799.15$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.5524957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under52c772$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.5621254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Under52c750$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36028556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Over51c673.27$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.375756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over48c638$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2477052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27623647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27027633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Under55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4510547.6%50 W · 55 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0585…5fa1backed Over48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9389…b332backed Over53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26020238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Under49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25539242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Over39c490$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1927731.2%24 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Over46c476.28$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.097751.9%40 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over45c467$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1539754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Over46c420$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.28950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed Over48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003941%16 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x855d…349fbacked Over52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Under53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.363863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe97…8e82backed Over71c320$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.252347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+28.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a0f…baf9backed Over49c308.06$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Under29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21311744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Under52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.461580%12 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over46c275$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.59443.6%41 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5384…9d80backed Under53c243.59$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.593046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf014…d442backed Over52c236.54$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-72.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under29c230$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6548847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…a206backed Over49c220.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Under55c220$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9911740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28a8…57d5backed Over46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c04cbacked Over48c211.71$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e0…d720backed Under53c211.32$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10a8…8629backed Over48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over47c207.49$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5230442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Under49c206$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0612151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58b…48e8backed Over47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943540%14 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210454.8%57 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Over45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9031540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc741…5252backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9b…5722backed Over46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Under64c189.24$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9132347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over48c180$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.459453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe468…926ebacked Over52c168.29$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.511855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9da3…a7efbacked Under53c162.11$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1912054.2%65 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ff…40b4backed Over52c159$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.681145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Over40c154.32$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.582050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726030%18 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Under48c149.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.998047.5%38 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x205f…0189backed Over48c143.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696267.7%42 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over52c142.31$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96b4…884ebacked Over49c126.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Over48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Over48c110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.85246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d3…14bbbacked Under53c107.49$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.522733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.