NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa108b39a59e1377e2b8378125367555808d9f959817eac0e88c7087880d75ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cowboysof Cowboys, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Raiders | 41c | 1,555$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.64 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Cowboys | 62c | 822.58$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.58 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cowboys | 59c | 784$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.44 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raiders | 38c | 553.19$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Cowboys | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raiders | 39c | 373.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cowboys | 59c | 344.64$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Cowboys | 63c | 317.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Raiders | 38c | 299.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Raiders | 38c | 168.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Raiders | 39c | 151$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…30babacked Cowboys | 62c | 126.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Raiders | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Cowboys | 61c | 87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Cowboys | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Cowboys | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Raiders | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Cowboys | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…0471backed Cowboys | 61c | 42.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Raiders | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Cowboys | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Cowboys | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Cowboys | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Cowboys | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Cowboys won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Cowboys won
- Cowboys Team Total: O/U 21.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. RaidersCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 25.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 49.5Under won
- Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.