MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa3da26d64d1043c30cd3f40f409d662eca258f90df64aae7f5c5c3c38c5a03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Under | 56c | 62,028$34,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,735.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 55c | 39,972$21,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,984.58 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 45c | 35,593$16,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,576.33 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 30,342$13,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,881.49 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 24,369$10,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,608 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…18cebacked Under | 56c | 19,321$10,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,831.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 44c | 14,567$6,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,157.28 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…2663backed Under | 56c | 6,259$3,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,504.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 44c | 4,544$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.63 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 3,025$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.94 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 45c | 1,088$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 45c | 967$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.85 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 45c | 802.9$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.18 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 723.41$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.12 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 44c | 697.8$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.15 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 45c | 661.86$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.02 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 45c | 661.86$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.02 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 72c | 555.79$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.16 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 44c | 500.57$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.32 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 45c | 408.29$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.56 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 388.71$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.55 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 56c | 352.44$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 238.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 54c | 235.43$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 46c | 233.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Over | 45c | 222.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 219.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 54c | 213.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 45c | 179.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…aa34backed Under | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 44c | 122$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 44c | 121.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 42c | 96.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 52c | 95.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Over | 41c | 94.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 35c | 84.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Under | 60c | 81.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 77.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 45c | 65.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 59c | 64.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…f2ffbacked Under | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 41c | 47.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 44c | 47.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 44c | 46.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Under | 56c | 40.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 44c | 39.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Over | 45c | 33.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…b921backed Over | 45c | 31.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 49c | 31.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 40c | 30.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…3269backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 72cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 45c | 28.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 45c | 25.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…b7fcbacked Over | 45c | 23.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…a2ecbacked Under | 56c | 22.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51d8…7536backed Under | 56c | 21.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Under | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona DiamondbacksAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 16.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.