Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe5552964dd3583ac75151c0d945a5c88a070ac01ba5ed9d6a6d992de0306e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiranteof Mensik, Tirante
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf377…4159backed Tirante | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mensik | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Mensik | 38c | 2,318$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.63 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Mensik | 38c | 1,143$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.5 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mensik | 38c | 862.69$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.78 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Tirante | 60c | 829.46$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.86 | 187 | 47.6%89 W · 98 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mensik | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mensik | 38c | 593.87$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.67 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Mensik | 39c | 476.31$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Tirante | 61c | 270.49$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Tirante | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tirante | 57c | 157.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Tirante | 43c | 140.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Mensik | 43c | 127.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mensik | 55c | 121.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Tirante | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Mensik | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Tirante | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Mensik | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 408 | 36.8%150 W · 258 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Mensik | 42c | 53.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 403 | 50.6%204 W · 199 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Mensik | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Tirante | 61c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Mensik | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 262 | 63%165 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Mensik | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub MensikThiago Agustin Tirante won
- Set 1 Winner: Tirante vs MensikMensik won
- Set 2 Winner: Tirante vs MensikTirante won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.