Cricket · resolved market
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe8a78f9fea9cb8867f7a3346ee8ee8a138e984a1058485cce40298d8c11f4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunrisers Hyderabadof Lucknow Super Giants, Sunrisers Hyderabad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb54b…e482backed Lucknow Super Giants | 28c | 13,870$3,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,937.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…8cf7backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 44c | 9,998$4,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,598.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…ed07backed Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 9,996$5,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,597.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…251ebacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 67c | 9,305$6,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,034.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 44c | 3,950$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.88 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac34…b36fbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 3,089$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b41…120dbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 44c | 3,089$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…76a5backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 36c | 2,411$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.66 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 2,359$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 54c | 2,316$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.57 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Lucknow Super Giants | 55c | 1,538$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab67…0d78backed Lucknow Super Giants | 73c | 1,363$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 43c | 1,267$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 43c | 1,222$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.79 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 808.4$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…d764backed Lucknow Super Giants | 64c | 780.42$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…52b5backed Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 695.26$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb636…32bbbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 46c | 642.77$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Lucknow Super Giants | 24c | 512.48$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 459.27$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…a7b9backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…28fabacked Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 278.29$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 63c | 269.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 44c | 226.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…95a3backed Lucknow Super Giants | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…6db5backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 60c | 189.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 41c | 178.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 154 | 29.9%46 W · 108 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…f088backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 173.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…c40cbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 58c | 172.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…0112backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 37c | 156.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…e663backed Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 153.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed Lucknow Super Giants | 40c | 150.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…bf9dbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 67c | 148.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…a31dbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…d28cbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 117$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 106.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…1efabacked Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Lucknow Super Giants | 54c | 95.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…118abacked Lucknow Super Giants | 58c | 93.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 43c | 89.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…6215backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 30c | 83.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 81.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 43c | 81.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 80.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…20d0backed Lucknow Super Giants | 77c | 71.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…6159backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0f…9111backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…8810backed Lucknow Super Giants | 63c | 59.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…7ec7backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 52.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9ea1backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 45c | 52.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Lucknow Super Giants | 58c | 52.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…88d5backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 45c | 49.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c7…732abacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9944…ddfcbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 58c | 40.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576e…d022backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 44c | 35.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…c2c4backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…91b8backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…b835backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Lucknow Super Giants | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2135…71cdbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 47c | 31.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b3…183dbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…149ebacked Lucknow Super Giants | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6803…2a05backed Lucknow Super Giants | 50c | 23.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07f…06b8backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 44c | 23.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…aa94backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…5fdcbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 22.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…b123backed Sunrisers Hyderabad | 45c | 22.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7b…a592backed Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb360…f39ebacked Lucknow Super Giants | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…ccfebacked Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 19.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…a436backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 18.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…a5c6backed Lucknow Super Giants | 57c | 18.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.