Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs FTS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5feda5fab9b1c0a57e0313ac4604c8c2bddecb3ee2718b244040237235839163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, FTS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f04…1fb0backed FTS | 29c | 3,201$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.89 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Inner Circle | 75c | 2,569$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.95 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked FTS | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…49b2backed Inner Circle | 73c | 1,799$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.62 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…8bbcbacked Inner Circle | 71c | 1,418$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.57 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked FTS | 22c | 1,197$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.18 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…186cbacked Inner Circle | 76c | 1,015$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.01 | 71 | 69%49 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…c059backed FTS | 7c | 899.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…852fbacked FTS | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…9fb9backed FTS | 21c | 649.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…3da9backed Inner Circle | 76c | 505.89$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed FTS | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked FTS | 30c | 441.09$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Inner Circle | 74c | 403.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed FTS | 23c | 397.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked FTS | 25c | 397.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5cc0backed Inner Circle | 70c | 366$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…bba7backed FTS | 30c | 330$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked FTS | 20c | 299.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…6be1backed FTS | 29c | 273.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked FTS | 13c | 260.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FTS | 21c | 259.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0396…86babacked Inner Circle | 71c | 226.75$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Inner Circle | 66c | 178.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3b…2921backed FTS | 33c | 163.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf48f…e9b9backed Inner Circle | 67c | 153.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…d385backed FTS | 29c | 153$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked FTS | 27c | 149.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…7841backed FTS | 23c | 144.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…6984backed Inner Circle | 71c | 143$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FTS | 21c | 128$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed FTS | 21c | 122.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Inner Circle | 78c | 121.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed FTS | 30c | 115$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked FTS | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…2ad3backed Inner Circle | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…cecdbacked Inner Circle | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed FTS | 21c | 84.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Inner Circle | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked FTS | 27c | 68.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Inner Circle | 79c | 67.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…102abacked Inner Circle | 64c | 64.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked FTS | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…f44cbacked FTS | 28c | 55.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed FTS | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed Inner Circle | 78c | 52.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2f…2586backed Inner Circle | 75c | 51.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…8b29backed Inner Circle | 75c | 51.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 148 | 61.5%91 W · 57 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…59e2backed Inner Circle | 76c | 50.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed FTS | 29c | 50.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked FTS | 28c | 49.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Inner Circle | 67c | 48.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Inner Circle | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…babcbacked FTS | 28c | 39.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FTS | 36c | 39.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Inner Circle | 65c | 34.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Inner Circle | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked FTS | 37c | 27.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2906…555abacked Inner Circle | 76c | 26.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Inner Circle | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Inner Circle | 72c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Inner Circle | 78c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…2e87backed Inner Circle | 77c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs FTS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs FTS (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group AInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs FTS - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.