Champions League · resolved market
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-10-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x600ff1054d6d86bf782b92289fc5a64aff7b5b1806fa3b51a8c7afe9abbff678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 8c | 11,904$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.47 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…cbabbacked No | 80c | 9,264$7,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed Yes | 20c | 9,264$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.74 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 6c | 6,535$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.96 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 5c | 6,336$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.8 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 80c | 5,027$4,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…97e1backed Yes | 20c | 2,480$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 2,049$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.85 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 19c | 1,296$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.15 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 79c | 1,160$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.57 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 20c | 934$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 80c | 923.19$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…ed5fbacked No | 80c | 875$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…9732backed Yes | 19c | 875$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…d0abbacked Yes | 22c | 702.64$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…68fcbacked No | 80c | 563$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 20c | 502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Yes | 20c | 460$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 80c | 351$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 80c | 320$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 79c | 312.19$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…ef73backed Yes | 18c | 304.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 19c | 297.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 20c | 266$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 80c | 230$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 184.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 20c | 151$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 18c | 149.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 21c | 114.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf773…b62dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…7d8abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…a2edbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec67…2848backed Yes | 22c | 59.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…3643backed Yes | 22c | 55.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…81e6backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked No | 79c | 48.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…0d95backed Yes | 21c | 48.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-10-21?this page
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21?Yes won
- Will Villarreal CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.