Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60238d595af1cf997b715e36bc8bf9143b9c2a4c997b757cef446d748a5831bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,481$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 75c | 1,308$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.76 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 516.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 444.91$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 428.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 8c | 285.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 72c | 252.08$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 233.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 228.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 7c | 226.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 49c | 166.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 79c | 166.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 151.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 71c | 141.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 137$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 129.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 127.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 121.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 109.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 108.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 89.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 63c | 89.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 88.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b247backed Yes | 21c | 81.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 69.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 29c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 75c | 66.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 64.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 64.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 59.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 28c | 57.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 57.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 73c | 54.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 53.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 51.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 47c | 50.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 70c | 43.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 72c | 40.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 35.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 33.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 59c | 32.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 62c | 32.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 72c | 31.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300e…8d02backed No | 71c | 29.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 50c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 27.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 70c | 27.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 79c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 72c | 25.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 60c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked No | 80c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.