Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa17f26cc5514c2ef2362f5e2c2ca673c8828e78a2518adac04626f38e442d932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 75c | 726.56$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.51 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 79c | 658.98$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 381.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 315.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 63c | 227.38$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.11 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc5…26b3backed Yes | 5c | 212.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 17c | 185.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 64c | 180.24$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 175.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 51c | 166.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 159.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 121.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 119.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 118.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 51c | 110.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 74c | 99.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 70c | 97.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 31c | 96.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 96.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 39c | 92.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 76.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 75.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 70.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 75c | 66.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…b1e4backed No | 30c | 66.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 63.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 61.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 58.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 66c | 58.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 57.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 35c | 56.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 55c | 54.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 54.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 68c | 54.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 70c | 52.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 33c | 51.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b247backed Yes | 30c | 50.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 41c | 46.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 45c | 44.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 68c | 42.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 40.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed No | 66c | 38.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 31.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed No | 67c | 31.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 40c | 31.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 63c | 31.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 47c | 30.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 53c | 30.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed No | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 73c | 20.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 66c | 20.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 71c | 19.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.