Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6075398a3df61b33c8d5572a2bcc8b9e07b46a656bb139b11be11026ef445aae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,500$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 56c | 440.29$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.79 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 402$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 25c | 318.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 46c | 295$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 279.94$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.66 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 269.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 196.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 196$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 192.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 190.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 169.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 57c | 155$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 44c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 143.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked No | 70c | 140.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 134$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 128.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 45c | 122.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 119.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 103$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 50c | 101.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 78.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 40c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…6534backed No | 43c | 72.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 35c | 64.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 58.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 43c | 58.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 35c | 56.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 63c | 54.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 52.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 51.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 51c | 41.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 35.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 53c | 34.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 66c | 30.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 29.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 57c | 27.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…5f3bbacked Yes | 44c | 24.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 61c | 21.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 21.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…31c3backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…1349backed Yes | 77c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.