Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x608a2835565005fe9b413a4fa9ead98698880e1cbcc4babcc53a0c236fabb0a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 61c | 625.13$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 453.05$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 397.26$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.45 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 233.27$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 26c | 232.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.28 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 193.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 187.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 168.41$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 165.39$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 14c | 161.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 35c | 124.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 71c | 111.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 108.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 71c | 104$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 96.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 92.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 24c | 89.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 28c | 85.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 78.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 77.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 21c | 73.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 29c | 72.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 71.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 44c | 71.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 69.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 65.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 60.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…3eccbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 29c | 54.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Yes | 37c | 54.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed Yes | 57c | 54.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 52.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 49.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 47.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 49c | 47.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 40.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 39.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 38.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…fc3bbacked Yes | 75c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…1725backed Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 44c | 28.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 28.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 27.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 24.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 70c | 20.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 72c | 20.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 79c | 19.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.