TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes64c1,303$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.6689544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes37c652.57$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.278,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes42c478.11$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.541,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf732…4933backed No28c420.54$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+255%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes52c413.42$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0524841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8866…7fc8backed No72c337.71$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.414318.6%8 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+201.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes22c315.97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3163757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No79c293.08$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4251762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed Yes70c256.45$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes22c249.89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.764,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c245.05$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No37c242.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1820231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No32c213.29$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.0876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c209.54$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.854,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No48c205.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.191,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes22c183.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.715,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes6c164.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.396073.3%20 W · 587 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes72c143.34$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1231062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c142.09$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.372,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No66c138.12$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0426067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfb…1a95backed Yes30c136.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-69.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No44c130.04$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.183,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes78c128$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No57c124.81$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.822,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No55c119.34$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.141,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No36c118.47$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.452,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No40c107.74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0831050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes65c104.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f8…fcf6backed No75c101$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6911363.7%72 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.311,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2074023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes45c79.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes55c78.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4125519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes40c71.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2916354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5034050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No64c67.02$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes18c66.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2131836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Yes32c63.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.627047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21fb…842cbacked Yes23c62.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.174934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6191…9e5ebacked No78c60.19$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No24c56.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.841,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No60c54.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.691,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.512235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No29c49.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes42c48.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No75c45.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes51c45.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2216144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No61c43.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked No64c42.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.569439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes62c41.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.514753.2%25 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No57c40.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes67c40.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.371,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No60c39.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5539968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes51c37.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed Yes37c36.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.512147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes69c35.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8316339.9%65 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2084…e384backed Yes44c34.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152119%4 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+89.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No60c33.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1940461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No53c32.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No46c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.288466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked No40c31.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0330665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c31.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.225,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.544,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No74c29.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33b7…0589backed No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.178673.3%63 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904c…4172backed No58c27.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.533850%19 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd5…d470backed No62c27.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.291060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6417744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeca2…6755backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c25.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No74c25.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4181756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No42c25.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes74c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4743430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a2…2c18backed No50c23.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.966663.6%42 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No65c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.051,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes66c22.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.938228%23 W · 59 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No63c22.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.181,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f8…a683backed Yes65c20.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…7401backed No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.22055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1be…fa77backed Yes73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick75cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes64c18.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9820144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6557…8474backed No60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.27156.3%40 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes75c15.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9225946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4562770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.