Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c0f951ed0aaaab0bcc85968449db97406ba8bc6550cb64b19b2d66680425654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 64c | 1,303$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.66 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 652.57$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 42c | 478.11$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…4933backed No | 28c | 420.54$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +255%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 52c | 413.42$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.05 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed No | 72c | 337.71$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 22c | 315.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 293.08$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Yes | 70c | 256.45$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 249.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 245.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 37c | 242.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 213.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 209.54$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 48c | 205.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 183.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 72c | 143.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 142.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 138.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…1a95backed Yes | 30c | 136.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 130.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 78c | 128$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 124.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 119.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 118.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 40c | 107.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 65c | 104.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 75c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 45c | 79.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 55c | 78.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 40c | 71.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 67.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 18c | 66.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 32c | 63.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 23c | 62.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…9e5ebacked No | 78c | 60.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 56.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 54.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 29c | 49.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 42c | 48.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 45.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 51c | 45.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 43.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 64c | 42.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 62c | 41.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 57c | 40.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 67c | 40.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 60c | 39.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 51c | 37.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 37c | 36.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 69c | 35.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…e384backed Yes | 44c | 34.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 60c | 33.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 40c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 31.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 29.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 58c | 27.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd5…d470backed No | 62c | 27.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…6755backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 25.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 25.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 42c | 25.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 50c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 66c | 22.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f8…a683backed Yes | 65c | 20.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 64c | 18.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 75c | 15.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.