Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x609de904942b6eb9d098d77766a41b08d1d3c3d22b357609c573e247fece2360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked No | 70c | 29,488$20,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,846.39 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.4wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 30c | 16,238$4,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,871.22 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 28c | 9,856$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.78 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 29c | 7,192$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.24 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 23c | 5,848$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.05 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed No | 72c | 5,507$3,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 28c | 5,107$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.94 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 3,366$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.37 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 29c | 2,200$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed No | 70c | 2,143$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.86 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +7.1wins | +0.40per pick | 49cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 31c | 1,650$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 30c | 1,316$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.8 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4a…2881backed Yes | 31c | 1,179$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked No | 69c | 1,148$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 29c | 1,141$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 800.22$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.43 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 30c | 462$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Yes | 28c | 350.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 332$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 31c | 285.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…ba6bbacked Yes | 10c | 280$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +288%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…e032backed No | 71c | 268.62$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…d019backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 20c | 249.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 154$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 11c | 146.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 143.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 69c | 143.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…a62ebacked No | 71c | 141.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 8c | 137.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 134.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…8cc1backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 19c | 56.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 30c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…dc7dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 29c | 48.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 47.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked No | 70c | 38.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 30c | 37.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 29c | 36.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked Yes | 30c | 35.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 94 | 67%63 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 79c | 29.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f0…7d99backed No | 70c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 70c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-02-22?Yes won
- Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-02-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.