Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60ac51571b759bdb17f0b1dd5a036e97504f4d288d973c03a4881c4666526b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 63c | 1,396$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.75 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 58c | 499.08$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.53 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 54c | 435.7$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 15c | 399.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.55 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 387.07$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 379.17$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 364.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…420abacked Yes | 9c | 324.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 257.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 230.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked Yes | 63c | 215.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 8c | 202.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 32c | 181.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed No | 56c | 178.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…f2dcbacked No | 58c | 165.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 155.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 139.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 29c | 137.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 23c | 131.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 11c | 124.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 13c | 122$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…fd7ebacked Yes | 69c | 116$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked No | 10c | 103.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 100.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 70c | 97.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 15c | 96.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 68c | 91.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 89.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…4ca4backed Yes | 55c | 83.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 13c | 83.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 82.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 78.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 55c | 71.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 51c | 68.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 28c | 62.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 80c | 61.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 36c | 49.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 54c | 48.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 42.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 47c | 34.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…607cbacked Yes | 49c | 33.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 32.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 38c | 29.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 24.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 50c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 77c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.