Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d7d881742842218911b0357ea1e7af618f12b0cb7ad72a1eceff45597d68f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 21c | 521.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 13c | 499.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 387.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 269.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 49c | 206.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 6c | 190.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 167.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 31c | 158$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 7c | 155$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 146.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 31c | 123.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 118.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 115.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 104.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 95.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 39c | 81.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 80.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 62c | 80.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 73.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 46c | 68.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 68.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 66.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 34c | 58.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 52c | 57.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 51c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 58c | 51.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 37c | 50.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 33c | 49.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 64c | 49.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 63c | 47.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 41c | 47.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 35c | 46.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 73c | 45.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…607cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 58c | 44.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 42.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 63c | 40.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked No | 65c | 37.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 35.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 32c | 34.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 33.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 43c | 31.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…b3d2backed Yes | 39c | 28.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 27.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 26.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 49c | 22.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 57c | 21.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 17.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.