Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d469da79416da55e3fafb11074bbdbe23822cd065a4043d126ed023ecb8cc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,890$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 5c | 886.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 3c | 647.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 2c | 629.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 29c | 410.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 386.2$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 320.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 66c | 284.71$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 208.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 200.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 30c | 194.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 30c | 180.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 10c | 168.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 161.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 19c | 155$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 153.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 27c | 133.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 16c | 129.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 9c | 125.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 119.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 28c | 119.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 109.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 97.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 96.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 74c | 90.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 81.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 77.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 69.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 36c | 68.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 67.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 66.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 58.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked Yes | 24c | 55.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 55.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 55.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 80c | 54.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 53.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 51.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5bbfbacked No | 75c | 47.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +422.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 43.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 29c | 35.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…ecf6backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 74c | 28.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 68c | 26.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 71c | 26.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 23.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 71c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 79c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 79c | 18.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 79c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 75c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 65c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 75c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 74c | 13.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.