Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa987f414c0d1aa0f5ab51d79d33c07f4151cbf8b3ae3d14173e30d74c1f52d3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 0c | 5,846$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 51c | 3,487$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.18 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 78c | 3,338$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.99 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 29c | 2,971$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,798$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 7c | 1,292$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 4c | 1,250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 970.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.01 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…b4e1backed No | 66c | 957.07$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 946.07$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 894.63$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 864.14$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 577.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 18c | 413.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 16c | 378.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.69 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 375.19$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 363.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 3c | 362.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.98 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 334$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…98e5backed Yes | 74c | 312.75$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…2f95backed No | 48c | 309.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 43c | 282.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 271.31$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 215.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 9c | 213.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.89 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 73c | 196.34$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 8c | 186.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.53 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 17c | 185.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 182.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 13c | 180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 18c | 169$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.26 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 8c | 167.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 22c | 160.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 159.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 150.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 8c | 150.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 143.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 21c | 140.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 14c | 139.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 136$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 44c | 128.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 23c | 127.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 65c | 124.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…d40bbacked Yes | 28c | 119.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 111.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 22c | 107.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 106.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f06…fd3ebacked No | 41c | 97.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 95.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 49c | 95.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 92.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…5749backed Yes | 17c | 89.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 21c | 88.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 79.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 36c | 78.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 20c | 73.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 24c | 73.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 73.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 72.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 37c | 72.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 14c | 70.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 75c | 68.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…47c7backed Yes | 80c | 67.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…e224backed No | 61c | 65.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 76c | 65.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 19c | 65.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 22c | 60.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 26c | 58.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 47c | 56.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 80c | 54.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…a1adbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 27c | 46.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 39c | 46.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 44.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 74c | 43.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 43.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 58c | 43.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 64c | 42.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 70c | 40.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 76c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 75c | 36.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…13f1backed No | 70c | 36.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 70c | 35.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.