Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2115113f52b4c5ac903c6d33ef223912d825be376fd597394f3ac74af9f5517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 6c | 1,888$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,223$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.73 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 38c | 1,114$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.5 | 284 | 40.5%115 W · 169 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,029$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 979.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 7c | 761$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 584.84$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.14 | 434 | 37.8%164 W · 270 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb833…3cf8backed Yes | 8c | 561.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 509$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 413$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 411.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 410.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 23c | 318.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 361 | 23.8%86 W · 275 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 317.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.07 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 33c | 299.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 473 | 44%208 W · 265 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 47c | 249.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 569 | 43.4%247 W · 322 L | -32.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 62c | 237.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 45c | 228.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 228.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 70c | 227.28$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 17c | 226.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 16c | 221.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 13c | 217.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 42c | 216.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 29c | 209.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 43.2%144 W · 189 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 49c | 200.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98e…797fbacked Yes | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 48c | 199.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 161 | 46%74 W · 87 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 197.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 47c | 193.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 192.01$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 162$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 1,114 | 35.1%391 W · 723 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 153.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 148.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 142.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 138.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 137.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 69c | 130.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 209 | 38.3%80 W · 129 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 14c | 116.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 252 | 75.8%191 W · 61 L | +25.0wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 46c | 108.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 35c | 105.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 45c | 102.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 101.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 52c | 97.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…1d09backed Yes | 52c | 96.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 91.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 90.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 33c | 88.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 56c | 87.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 86.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 84.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 14c | 80.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 72c | 80.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 27c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 49c | 71.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 77c | 67.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 44c | 64.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 348 | 67.8%236 W · 112 L | +26.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 333 | 39.6%132 W · 201 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…53b3backed Yes | 33c | 61.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 60.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 57.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 56.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…f4eabacked No | 66c | 55.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 244 | 46.3%113 W · 131 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…38a6backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec5…20e0backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…2004backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…7678backed No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 793 | 63.4%503 W · 290 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 47.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 50c | 46.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5c…db6dbacked Yes | 57c | 45.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 30c | 43.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…affdbacked Yes | 30c | 43.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 29c | 43.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 966 | 51.3%496 W · 470 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…cd70backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…3260backed No | 61c | 41.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 36c | 41.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 29c | 40.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 46c | 40.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 40.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 931 | 44.9%418 W · 513 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 38.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 36.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.