Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60ef1aeecdf711d6943d302850934a9c890032959073791e43c6cb68667d2c81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 48c | 8,563$4,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,113.11 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 47c | 2,838$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.71 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 2,661$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.01 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Yes | 50c | 2,182$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.57 | 214 | 42.5%91 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,975$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.3 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 56c | 1,930$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.11 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…dbabbacked Yes | 52c | 1,264$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc217…fd5abacked Yes | 54c | 1,210$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.93 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed No | 43c | 1,008$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.55 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Yes | 51c | 951.35$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.16 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…6d85backed Yes | 54c | 724.34$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.95 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 42c | 609.97$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.19 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 43c | 602.94$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.27 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked No | 45c | 469.35$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.51 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…a97bbacked Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 42c | 391.6$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.94 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 44c | 283.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 44c | 283.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.87 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…8285backed Yes | 56c | 197.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9e…fe9dbacked Yes | 54c | 187.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 141.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851f…642fbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…ab02backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf37…dafbbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…b076backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda55…1534backed Yes | 52c | 77.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 45c | 76.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…c5c2backed Yes | 62c | 61.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 42c | 59.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…fd15backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…da88backed Yes | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…fd2dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…fc6dbacked Yes | 74c | 44.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +14.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…3e0abacked Yes | 57c | 44.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9425…63f2backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 272 | 60.3%164 W · 108 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…71c8backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…216abacked Yes | 51c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x623b…b1f8backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1e…ebfebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…0e06backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…eaa0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…909cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…7710backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina to win the second half?this page
- Algeria to win the second half?No won
- Argentina vs. Algeria: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.