Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 60-70 min?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x611cb4039143b2f5c5874385da3e4f5f54e27c74d6f5fedd30c6dabd762f2fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 789.44$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 697.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 18c | 569.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Yes | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 17c | 354$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 24c | 207.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2828…1e68backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 16c | 193.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…5511backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…1360backed Yes | 16c | 129$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc61…e0a8backed Yes | 16c | 127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…fc23backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…802bbacked Yes | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…a11abacked Yes | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2267…6179backed Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…6626backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…18d0backed Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…a60abacked Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c17…6f09backed Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…ec2bbacked Yes | 14c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…441abacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…9c29backed Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…47f4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…077cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…4f82backed Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679e…66d1backed Yes | 23c | 51.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 75c | 41.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…9d4abacked No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…f965backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869d…350cbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…8824backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc939…5468backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…3ae9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0b…8a91backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be2…f1bebacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…a6d8backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ab…ba03backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…604dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 60-70 min?this page
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 50-60 min?No won
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 70-80 min?No won
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 80 min or more?Yes won
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.