Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab799a59b1a49a4f24d80fce43f41db8fc56fbda3cbf8993bfc7b2047dd96906
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 4c | 5,065$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.39 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,288$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,573$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,383$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…5511backed Yes | 3c | 820$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 4c | 701.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 3c | 562.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 4c | 520$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 9c | 505.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 5c | 479.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 10c | 457.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7b…3c8fbacked Yes | 5c | 442$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 6c | 354$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cd…8719backed Yes | 5c | 303.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…f4acbacked Yes | 12c | 295$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…3c3ebacked Yes | 13c | 236$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…e12cbacked Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…5581backed Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…2d4dbacked Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min?this page
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 50-60 min?No won
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 60-70 min?No won
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 70-80 min?No won
- Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 80 min or more?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.