NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6179c2ee8c636d84013134713eabdf48ae720d9acf521fa2ed6d7efef59fda62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 48c | 220,000$104,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104,600 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 53c | 172,035$90,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,565.38 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Under | 52c | 51,240$26,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,595.31 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 47c | 14,547$6,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,836.99 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 12,494$6,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,872.18 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 8,329$4,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,015.9 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…b407backed Over | 48c | 5,600$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…f531backed Under | 52c | 5,600$2,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 4,081$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.16 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.33 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 983$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.01 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 877$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.27 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Over | 48c | 738$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 500.02$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.34 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 57c | 433$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.29 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 423$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.89 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…e3d9backed Over | 48c | 418.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.78 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…13bfbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1340…e38bbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…fb3abacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 48c | 345$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Over | 48c | 276.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Over | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 49c | 215.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…7c3fbacked Under | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…6bb9backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 48c | 144.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 48c | 137.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf19…d4aebacked Over | 49c | 118.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…5ed7backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Over | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 48c | 88.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 48c | 84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…4f40backed Over | 49c | 79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15a…4e72backed Over | 49c | 78.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…e22bbacked Over | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…d6f8backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…0a1cbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 21.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 49c | 20.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Jets vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Jets won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.