Lol · resolved market
LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61816b2c9f543476f5fd22e0d4fbc35283f25fcfc85c20f08a9515ef58f0a55b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nongshim Red Forceof Cloud9, Nongshim Red Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed Nongshim Red Force | 73c | 4,107$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.19 | 287 | 46%132 W · 155 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cloud9 | 8c | 3,593$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.77 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Cloud9 | 16c | 2,474$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.85 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Cloud9 | 25c | 2,336$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.23 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Cloud9 | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 247 | 50.6%125 W · 122 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Nongshim Red Force | 67c | 1,544$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…08fdbacked Cloud9 | 41c | 1,486$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Cloud9 | 5c | 1,318$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Cloud9 | 35c | 1,317$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.2 | 1,229 | 45.1%554 W · 675 L | +48.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…1011backed Cloud9 | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Cloud9 | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Nongshim Red Force | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -11.0wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Nongshim Red Force | 70c | 625.18$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.88 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…7eacbacked Cloud9 | 30c | 469.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Nongshim Red Force | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…664cbacked Nongshim Red Force | 78c | 225.64$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Cloud9 | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Nongshim Red Force | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 205 | 63.9%131 W · 74 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…6f11backed Nongshim Red Force | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…6fcdbacked Nongshim Red Force | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 314 | 35.7%112 W · 202 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…978bbacked Nongshim Red Force | 67c | 144.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…ff4abacked Nongshim Red Force | 78c | 114.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Nongshim Red Force | 77c | 104.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Nongshim Red Force | 67c | 98.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Cloud9 | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…95ddbacked Nongshim Red Force | 67c | 64.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…907cbacked Nongshim Red Force | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 981 | 63.8%626 W · 355 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…bfffbacked Nongshim Red Force | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb0…cfdabacked Nongshim Red Force | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Nongshim Red Force | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Nongshim Red Force | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Nongshim Red Force | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3)Nongshim Red Force won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 WinnerCloud9 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.