TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Tampa Bay Raysof Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,707 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers32c3,038$972 inLost-$972.3611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays68c2,841$1,934 inWon+$906.088,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays74c995$731 inWon+$263.688,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb45…0cadbacked Tampa Bay Rays68c429$292 inWon+$137.285350.9%27 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Los Angeles Dodgers27c362.48$98 inLost-$97.8797050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa31a…d023backed Los Angeles Dodgers25c346.96$87 inLost-$86.748744.8%39 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers23c250$58 inLost-$57.59,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers22c206.57$46 inLost-$46.22,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles Dodgers6c201.31$12 inLost-$11.81,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Dodgers26c184.96$49 inLost-$48.941,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Los Angeles Dodgers36c121$44 inLost-$43.5629242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays76c67.17$51 inWon+$16.4212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays79c66$52 inWon+$14.191,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Dodgers27c50$14 inLost-$13.52,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays69c48$33 inWon+$14.745,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers34c45.45$15 inLost-$15.456,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Tampa Bay Rays66c45.45$30 inWon+$15.455040%20 W · 30 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7810…b011backed Los Angeles Dodgers34c44.12$15 inLost-$156149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d2…3f89backed Los Angeles Dodgers34c44.11$15 inLost-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Los Angeles Dodgers31c36.26$11 inLost-$11.1887370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Tampa Bay Rays66c15.5$10 inWon+$5.271,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.