MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38fd3f83686d2d4bf59c8cc1bb0d8715b486a8aa8302d5364fd9ed052e467359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 70c | 214.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed No | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 55c | 125.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 45c | 110.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…564ebacked Yes | 54c | 102.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked No | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 39c | 97.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Yes | 55c | 94.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…5a37backed Yes | 56c | 89.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 81.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…86c3backed Yes | 51c | 58.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5c…0380backed Yes | 51c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd122…5a81backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…3b98backed Yes | 51c | 31.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…cbb1backed Yes | 51c | 31.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc52…5bd3backed Yes | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Yes | 54c | 30.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed No | 49c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…6da5backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…8cccbacked Yes | 51c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…bb82backed Yes | 51c | 29.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…4d66backed Yes | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…b95abacked Yes | 51c | 28.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…44e9backed Yes | 51c | 27.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…d59bbacked Yes | 51c | 27.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d06…7c29backed Yes | 51c | 27.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Yes | 51c | 26.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…c0f8backed Yes | 51c | 26.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…aa45backed Yes | 51c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b5…43f1backed Yes | 51c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…7ed8backed Yes | 51c | 25.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3bafbacked Yes | 51c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…db1fbacked Yes | 51c | 24.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…c7f6backed Yes | 51c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…c7edbacked Yes | 51c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…cc0abacked Yes | 51c | 24.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Yes | 51c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…7599backed Yes | 51c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…25a6backed Yes | 51c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 59cpaid | -60%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…f567backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c4…6a4abacked Yes | 51c | 23.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9c…7854backed Yes | 51c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…3261backed Yes | 51c | 23.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…c4b1backed Yes | 51c | 23.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb0…f977backed Yes | 51c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed Yes | 51c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…0fdcbacked Yes | 51c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…28bdbacked Yes | 51c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…8b41backed Yes | 51c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…dd72backed Yes | 51c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed Yes | 51c | 22.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…77d2backed Yes | 51c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…7ed6backed Yes | 51c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed Yes | 51c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…093cbacked Yes | 51c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…19f2backed Yes | 51c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…a945backed Yes | 51c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…e22dbacked Yes | 51c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…b52dbacked Yes | 51c | 22.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Yes | 51c | 21.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4886backed Yes | 51c | 21.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62f…f058backed Yes | 51c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…581fbacked Yes | 51c | 21.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233c…6996backed Yes | 51c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…f6dcbacked Yes | 51c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…b2fcbacked Yes | 51c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…7920backed Yes | 51c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…8d90backed Yes | 52c | 20.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5b…59b8backed Yes | 51c | 20.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…436cbacked Yes | 51c | 20.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed Yes | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 62c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…c43bbacked Yes | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…4843backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…34f0backed Yes | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…32dbbacked Yes | 51c | 19.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…ced7backed Yes | 51c | 19.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.