MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6afe912121de2c89ec1811eb56d9bc609521a47169ff2d4c6da97794c9a04658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 54c | 30,000$16,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,199.99 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 18,858$8,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,116.8 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Under | 55c | 9,999$5,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 5,466$2,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,921.67 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 5,361$2,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.99 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 5,263$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.58 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,708$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.66 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 28c | 1,763$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.14 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 1,660$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.41 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 1,361$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.45 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Over | 45c | 1,295$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.85 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Over | 45c | 1,021$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.61 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 54c | 603.66$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.22 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 554.7$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.54 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…96e2backed Over | 45c | 510.67$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…c3b7backed Over | 45c | 510.67$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 53c | 440$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 55c | 363.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 63c | 333.41$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 55c | 312.78$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 277.3$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 55c | 246.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Under | 75c | 227.07$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 231 | 66.7%154 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Over | 55c | 214.55$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Over | 52c | 193.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 8c | 180.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 45c | 177.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 77c | 162.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 52c | 160.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Over | 55c | 152.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Over | 45c | 102.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 47c | 99.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 47c | 97.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 45c | 92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed Over | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…1ed3backed Over | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…e9bebacked Over | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 55c | 84.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 45c | 84.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 198 | 54.5%108 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Under | 52c | 80.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 30c | 76.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 45c | 65.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 73c | 60.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…dd75backed Over | 42c | 47.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 65c | 45.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 46c | 40.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 54c | 36.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 45c | 30.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…4c9abacked Over | 55c | 29.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed Over | 54c | 26.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…5607backed Over | 55c | 26.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Over | 54c | 24.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc572…fc7ebacked Over | 55c | 21.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.