TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,932
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,932 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes6c1,268$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x886d…c586backed Yes51c648.13$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.162339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78bc…617cbacked Yes3c496.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.32548%12 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes36c364.76$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2739966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes9c355.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes21c239.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3142849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No67c236.68$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0963656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c235.94$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes29c224.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.045,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c209.94$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.074,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x723a…6a11backed Yes49c192.36$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.941250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes39c191.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.934143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes52c190.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.071637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94af…e65fbacked Yes22c176.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.862740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f59…9e40backed Yes14c164.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.886131.1%19 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c164.03$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes52c162.86$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.094341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes39c150$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5840025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e37…5396backed Yes55c138.68$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.411546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes26c134.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.618327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes21c130.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.581,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No47c128.84$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes42c127.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.451,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes57c122.46$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2610059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaad…8a4cbacked Yes60c119.93$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes40c111.78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51c…96dcbacked Yes46c103.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes18c103.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.078417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1126327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3074023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes40c94.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No59c89.07$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7234250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes36c88.01$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes48c84.58$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5619160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed No62c83.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6744757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes49c83.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8711362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes25c75.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No65c74.65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1319152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa061…2c51backed No53c74.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.881225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-40.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf30d…a622backed Yes48c71.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.481553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc524…3633backed No71c68.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.862080%16 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8009…3e9abacked Yes39c66.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.891735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes45c65.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.625239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae4f…cde1backed No59c64.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.292152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes18c62.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Yes59c59.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.482864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e2…c26fbacked Yes30c52.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed No55c52.09$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.449344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes37c51.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.881,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c50.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes30c50.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.897939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87f0…85f7backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206717.9%12 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed Yes24c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c49.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05a…919abacked Yes58c49.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.73944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes35c49.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3941733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc935…74cfbacked Yes28c48.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.591145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes50c46.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.393225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No54c46.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2953547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d4…7a4ebacked Yes47c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes56c44.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0546444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6437533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No58c43.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1183360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No76c41.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0427464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No66c40.34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6229770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes35c40.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0217033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.119430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No57c39.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.97266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82cf…b944backed Yes27c37.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212035%7 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes40c37.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.181,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No66c36.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3730859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe770…6c69backed Yes53c36.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-64.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes45c35.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.131,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes42c35.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0540242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d8…52d5backed No51c30.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.878229.3%24 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.67468.9%51 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No63c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0956265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd68…988dbacked No63c28.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.37966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No50c26.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2347738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8be9…845fbacked No56c25.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.226063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No42c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…480bbacked No54c24.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.386040%24 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No53c24.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes45c24.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9322945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf69a…90f7backed Yes53c23.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafe0…1b89backed Yes46c23.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+43.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No61c23.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.128746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a78…9e4ebacked No55c22.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb934…57ebbacked Yes50c22.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.47541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b3…dc40backed No55c22.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.124245.2%19 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No53c21.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.187,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked No67c19.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3833058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed No57c18.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.819054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No64c16.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.991,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb610…a37abacked No70c15.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.