Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61af1efd2bf4a78a43a2779b302f86989cd91f218e418070401e3ad9cda3a493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,268$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 51c | 648.13$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.16 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 3c | 496.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 36c | 364.76$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 355.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 21c | 239.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 236.68$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 235.94$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 224.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 209.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed Yes | 49c | 192.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 39c | 191.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 52c | 190.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 22c | 176.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 14c | 164.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 164.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 52c | 162.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed Yes | 55c | 138.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 130.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 47c | 128.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 127.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 57c | 122.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…8a4cbacked Yes | 60c | 119.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 111.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…96dcbacked Yes | 46c | 103.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 18c | 103.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 40c | 94.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 59c | 89.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 88.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 48c | 84.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 62c | 83.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 49c | 83.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 75.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 65c | 74.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…2c51backed No | 53c | 74.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 48c | 71.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 71c | 68.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked Yes | 39c | 66.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 65.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…cde1backed No | 59c | 64.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 18c | 62.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 59c | 59.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…c26fbacked Yes | 30c | 52.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 55c | 52.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 51.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 50.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 30c | 50.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 49.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…919abacked Yes | 58c | 49.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 49.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked Yes | 28c | 48.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 50c | 46.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…7a4ebacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 56c | 44.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 43.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 76c | 41.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 66c | 40.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 35c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 57c | 39.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 27c | 37.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 40c | 37.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 66c | 36.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe770…6c69backed Yes | 53c | 36.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 45c | 35.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 35.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed No | 51c | 30.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…988dbacked No | 63c | 28.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 50c | 26.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 56c | 25.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 54c | 24.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No | 53c | 24.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 45c | 24.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 53c | 23.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafe0…1b89backed Yes | 46c | 23.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 61c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…9e4ebacked No | 55c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 55c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 21.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 57c | 18.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…a37abacked No | 70c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.