TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,841

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed No3c1,224$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6957614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No23c706.11$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7242130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c588.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.947,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes67c560.87$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2537533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c386.53$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No13c326.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.493,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes34c324.79$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.011,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No39c319.21$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No35c259.94$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2663656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No13c252.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9264021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c251.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes32c235.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7110642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…8a87backed No28c226.03$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.163324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No31c209.72$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes43c199.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1143026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes59c186.55$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.155,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c182.42$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No6c171.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes31c168.93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.914341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaad…8a4cbacked Yes76c143.32$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes71c129.39$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1125037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes41c127.84$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.121,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05a…919abacked Yes19c121.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No76c115.96$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8257038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No35c115.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.522,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94af…e65fbacked Yes35c103.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.752740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30d…a622backed Yes26c96.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.021553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No63c92.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No67c92$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.642,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f56…a97bbacked No74c90.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.155834.5%20 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c87.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes39c84.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6450648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeac…2970backed Yes26c79.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.482532%8 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes50c78.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.028428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes62c77.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2125344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes33c74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5894919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Yes47c73.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.192864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes35c67.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7340025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No45c64.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No77c62.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5542976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes70c61.81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3393734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes22c61.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.131,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes26c61.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes73c61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.587939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.055046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes48c58.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4223738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No54c55.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.877266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe16…d380backed Yes70c53.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.962245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c51.97$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7883360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes46c51.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7119160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7577…4d7bbacked Yes69c49.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes37c48.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6641733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3a…dfb2backed No76c48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x178b…0c67backed Yes44c47.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.853330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes61c47.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4344757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes67c46.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6224921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed No51c46.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8110059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No42c46.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.519148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes50c46.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.312045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc10f…7972backed Yes42c44.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick59cpaid+43%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No42c41.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes53c41.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.481866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes48c39.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.811,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82cf…b944backed Yes53c38.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.092035%7 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2e…39e5backed Yes38c34.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.762634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No69c34.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0719058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes32c33.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9851321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x966f…175bbacked Yes59c32.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c31.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No76c31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.417468.9%51 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No64c30.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5614663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes49c29.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9342544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xced6…3f6dbacked No52c28.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.797912.7%10 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes42c28.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.441,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No54c28.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.148746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.484,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes70c27.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes46c26.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd27…ca0abacked No76c25.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.521070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes53c22.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.539966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes64c22.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9825449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No58c20.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.131,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes63c19.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.251353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d06…d8a1backed No74c19.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No77c19.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6917570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes59c17.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.259346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.