World Politics · resolved market
Will JA21 win 11–12 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61ca1f1af4ba9c66bd3ead0ea599f61996f34f0d9400648d63709859fb92f53c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 29c | 385$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 72c | 367.36$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 76c | 306.02$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 266.36$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 28c | 223.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 21c | 223.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 200.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 199.11$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…58c0backed Yes | 25c | 161.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 15c | 154.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccb…3135backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…35f6backed Yes | 31c | 108.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…8694backed Yes | 28c | 106.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Yes | 14c | 106.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd1…3bffbacked Yes | 21c | 104.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…7d9dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 73c | 83.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…e37cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fb…b8b6backed Yes | 29c | 50.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 25c | 41.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JA21 win 11–12 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will JA21 win 13 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will JA21 win 9–10 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will JA21 win fewer than 9 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.