TailMyPicks
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Dota2 · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0273…46ddbacked Under56c1,177$664 inLost-$6641546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked Over44c600$262 inWon+$33813844.9%62 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2fe…695dbacked Under58c336.39$196 inLost-$19617349.1%85 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Over43c240$104 inWon+$135.726741.9%112 W · 155 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Under59c213.51$126 inLost-$125.9716147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over43c154.49$66 inWon+$88.581,15847.7%552 W · 606 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Over45c137.78$62 inWon+$75.7822340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Over41c132.93$55 inWon+$78.4314742.2%62 W · 85 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Over43c132.56$57 inWon+$75.568155.6%45 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked Over43c108.37$47 inWon+$61.778655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over48c92.15$44 inWon+$47.921,91447.6%911 W · 1,003 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed Under52c75$39 inLost-$394057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x332e…0747backed Over41c72.73$30 inWon+$42.911866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f39…28dabacked Under62c61.29$38 inLost-$383636.1%13 W · 23 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xabfe…dba6backed Over46c41.15$19 inWon+$22.221330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Under59c35$21 inLost-$20.659248.9%45 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578a…e324backed Over43c34.88$15 inWon+$19.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Under47c33.32$16 inLost-$15.6640634.5%140 W · 266 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Under59c32.18$19 inLost-$19.1343067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Over53c24.32$13 inWon+$11.4317443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Under54c21.74$12 inLost-$11.746479.7%51 W · 13 L+8.3wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.