Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1676defa8a90fd5af2303449ca632dd94dae15b873d149dd4f7e77e1e434783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Nigma Galaxy, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5038…6236backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 10,573$4,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,587.41 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…cdb1backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 6,476$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.68 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…57e0backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 6,454$3,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,775.22 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 4,500$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 2,123$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.89 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Yellow Submarine | 52c | 1,395$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.77 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…8427backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 1,082$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 900$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 746.74$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.37 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 534.62$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.49 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Yellow Submarine | 56c | 517$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.33 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yellow Submarine | 53c | 486.41$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.9 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Yellow Submarine | 57c | 470.91$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.69 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f7…71d2backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 433.74$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 408.1$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.73 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 352.06$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Yellow Submarine | 54c | 350$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 304.54$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…1e14backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 249.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 222.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 221.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Yellow Submarine | 58c | 210.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…85b9backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 204.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 198.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 183.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 169.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…681dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 164$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 152.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 148.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Yellow Submarine | 43c | 113.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Yellow Submarine | 37c | 105.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 311 | 43.4%135 W · 176 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 99.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 95.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Yellow Submarine | 50c | 74.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…e1e3backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 67.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Yellow Submarine | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…5658backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 64.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Yellow Submarine | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yellow Submarine | 46c | 59.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f28…62f5backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 56.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 51.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 51.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 50.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…cc42backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 47.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…914bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 47.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yellow Submarine | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 41.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…19c8backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Yellow Submarine | 43c | 36.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 30.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf45d…a6f1backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 28.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 26.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc4…d48cbacked Yellow Submarine | 52c | 21.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | -10.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1c…98e8backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.