Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61fd400daaefcba002dfdf915cb225b846a67b0ccf5cd1b7b958728e7ff753aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 25,514$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 1c | 7,583$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…767fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,033$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,387$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 903.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 866.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 6c | 546.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 18c | 458.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 402.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 14c | 395.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked No | 79c | 248.24$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 17c | 235.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes | 21c | 217.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 212.52$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 200.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 12c | 191.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…a6cfbacked Yes | 9c | 161.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 34c | 136.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…e653backed Yes | 17c | 110.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 106.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f5…78a8backed No | 79c | 93.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 91.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 25c | 88.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245a…d2c8backed Yes | 14c | 70.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 22c | 48.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 38.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 76c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…4ad4backed No | 80c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…0a68backed No | 78c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.