Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd975af834f39febd305af89cf2c1fad6e5ee49e89d128b01da5c3a35cd64b7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 4c | 2,065$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 1,003$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed Yes | 3c | 994.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3f…3b5abacked Yes | 2c | 862.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 14c | 835.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed Yes | 6c | 819.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 699.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 689.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 9c | 679.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 5c | 606.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 596.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 471.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 3c | 469.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 7c | 380.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 6c | 362.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 9c | 355.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 341.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 5c | 334.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 7c | 311.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 296.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 262.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 11c | 261.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 6c | 219.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 9c | 198.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 7c | 194.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 7c | 164.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…a324backed Yes | 7c | 153.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 10c | 146.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 8c | 145.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 10c | 140.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 14c | 131.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 15c | 119.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 84.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…3f41backed Yes | 35c | 40.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.