Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55f2430349c6d635fcccb59d2974ecf46d9fc7f9b43cab71dd79058d57febbac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc025…b237backed Yes | 0c | 13,717$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 47c | 1,027$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 49c | 587.55$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.71 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 483.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 446.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 57c | 409.5$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.7 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 63c | 345.35$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.57 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 51c | 338.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.95 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4864…835cbacked Yes | 38c | 323.51$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 288.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 43c | 224.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 212.47$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 48c | 197.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 32c | 183.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 44c | 182.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 52c | 180.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 33c | 180$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 178.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 59c | 162.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 43c | 155.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 39c | 141.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 68c | 138.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 53c | 136.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 35c | 132.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 56c | 129.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 37c | 125.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 43c | 118.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 41c | 116.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 53c | 108.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f5…78a8backed No | 46c | 103.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 42c | 102.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 35c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 42c | 97.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 48c | 97.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed No | 47c | 96.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 56c | 95.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 21c | 94.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 66c | 94.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff3…f426backed Yes | 40c | 94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 30c | 87.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…02c3backed Yes | 56c | 84.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 76c | 81.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 37c | 78.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 77.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 52c | 76.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 51c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 70c | 69.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…16b6backed Yes | 56c | 68.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245a…d2c8backed Yes | 59c | 68.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed Yes | 36c | 65.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a51…e0a5backed Yes | 48c | 64.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 64.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed Yes | 44c | 64.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…3ba3backed No | 60c | 63.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 61.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 61.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 59.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 35c | 57.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 33c | 56.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 56.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 56.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…e8cbbacked Yes | 44c | 55.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 62c | 53.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 43c | 53.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 58c | 49.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes | 33c | 46.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 49c | 45.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 44c | 43.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 57c | 41.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 46c | 40.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 40.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 40.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 33c | 40.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…aae8backed Yes | 38c | 36.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 53c | 36.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 35.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 51c | 33.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…767fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 51c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 77c | 32.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.