Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ad15f60d84248c8ca7a13be4e136d59c6c90683233d8db10eda4137efe38fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 0c | 19,466$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 7c | 1,837$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,823$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.99 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 15c | 1,433$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.47 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 32c | 1,260$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked No | 76c | 934.84$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.09 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 23c | 680.74$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.79 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 58c | 557.47$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.3 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 9c | 534.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 66c | 487.5$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.39 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 480.43$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 475.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 445.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 33c | 443.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.28 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 353.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.72 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.65$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.43 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed No | 7c | 295.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 276.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 264.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 25c | 201.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.17 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 197.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 50c | 194.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 24c | 194.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 191.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 181.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 181$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 36c | 178.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 31c | 173.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 75c | 166.46$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 159.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 30c | 158.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 39c | 153.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 28c | 148.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 145.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 20c | 133.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 27c | 132.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 29c | 127.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 41c | 125.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes | 25c | 124.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 72c | 115.35$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 35c | 102.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 69c | 100.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc034…98afbacked Yes | 29c | 97.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +250%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed No | 15c | 95.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 95.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 34c | 93.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 89.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245a…d2c8backed Yes | 21c | 87.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 17c | 86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 31c | 80.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…e8cbbacked Yes | 34c | 79.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 23c | 78.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…4fd7backed Yes | 53c | 66.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 28c | 64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 29c | 62.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked Yes | 44c | 61.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…9e6fbacked No | 79c | 60.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…958fbacked Yes | 56c | 60.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed Yes | 31c | 60.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes | 38c | 56.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 72c | 55.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x982d…d208backed Yes | 34c | 53.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 73c | 48.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 38c | 46.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 60c | 42.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 55c | 38.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 64c | 35.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 64c | 34.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 27.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…2541backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +240.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14e…4286backed Yes | 69c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 66c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed No | 70c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 72c | 16.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 75c | 13.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.