Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x621b6ab422385aa6adaa75e985a6bb1a09aa75ae65980ca2564f9d67d9310da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 3,067$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.67 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 54c | 1,654$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.86 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 1,525$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.89 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 28c | 1,178$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.9 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 32c | 831.62$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.09 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 33c | 629$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 27c | 550$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.5 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 37c | 474.86$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Yes | 59c | 297.25$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.17 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 64c | 270.45$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 44c | 245.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 179.83$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30b…29e5backed Yes | 28c | 165.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 56c | 158.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 140.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 15c | 138.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 62c | 125.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 73c | 108.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 70cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 26c | 93.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 70c | 92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 34c | 90.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 26c | 68.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…52adbacked Yes | 27c | 65.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 60.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 39c | 59.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…fd08backed No | 73c | 57.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7206…0dcbbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f5…6710backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 74c | 16.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.