Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc583fd13336475af147d9085a7f261d6ac11bec5bcb1f7ec2fdd834760ae614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 8c | 5,143$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.64 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Yes | 41c | 2,400$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 1,390$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.08 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…1db6backed Yes | 41c | 1,219$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…2ae7backed No | 59c | 1,201$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f9…26f8backed No | 62c | 1,030$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 36c | 999.95$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.98 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 64c | 999.95$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.98 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Yes | 38c | 951.08$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bd…5c31backed No | 59c | 711.86$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 41c | 473.36$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.08 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 12c | 473.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 26c | 366.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 41c | 337.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…c865backed No | 59c | 277$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 59c | 249.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 41c | 239.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 60c | 232.79$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 61c | 201.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 16c | 188$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…e58fbacked No | 59c | 179.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 40c | 168$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 65c | 145.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 23c | 145.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 42c | 143$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked No | 60c | 141.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 42c | 139.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 41c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 58.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 59c | 58.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Yes | 27c | 55.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 59c | 50.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 40c | 48.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 40c | 44.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 65c | 37.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 59c | 29.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 40c | 27.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.