Mls · resolved market
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161a2d95eec0fc25bdcb1fbaba94aeb15077b5c23ab25263533bfbe2b39edd12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 62c | 11,935$7,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,538.65 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 52c | 6,344$3,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,325.53 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbc…faebbacked Yes | 34c | 5,744$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 66c | 2,498$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.91 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 34c | 1,709$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.94 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,619$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 66c | 1,460$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.97 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 69c | 1,380$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.27 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Yes | 64c | 891.78$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Yes | 40c | 866.37$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.55 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Yes | 61c | 830$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.3 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 40c | 797.71$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.09 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…3287backed Yes | 61c | 793.33$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 61c | 729.15$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.19 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 35c | 667.96$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.63 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 36c | 651$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.41 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 56c | 575.1$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 43c | 406.54$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.81 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 35c | 346.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 39c | 345.85$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 21c | 334.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 25c | 298.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Yes | 32c | 282.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Yes | 71c | 278.7$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 67c | 270.27$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 258.34$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 53c | 250.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 33c | 244.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 204.84$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 55c | 203.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 32c | 170.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 51c | 164.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked No | 31c | 161.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 63c | 158.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca5…a155backed Yes | 69c | 144.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 67c | 128.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…4e1cbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 16c | 121.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 59c | 118.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 60c | 115.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed No | 66c | 110.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…56fdbacked Yes | 69c | 97.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 17c | 88.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 20c | 72.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 67c | 60.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…e107backed Yes | 45c | 52.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 66c | 43.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 34c | 41.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…1933backed Yes | 34c | 37.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…8883backed Yes | 65c | 24.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.