Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x624c052040242fa1c2a9e21a3c0d0ed97ad210619381de42c21cf4b4e34a8dd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,789 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,024$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 15c | 3,064$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.61 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,822$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.8 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 16c | 2,033$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.31 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,497$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,335$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 1,214$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…62ebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,081$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 1,078$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.15 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 15c | 1,061$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 1,046$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 30c | 1,011$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.97 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 896.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 13c | 788.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…19a7backed Yes | 2c | 702.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 658.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…41d2backed Yes | 42c | 649.97$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 76c | 634.83$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 616.28$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.33 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 70c | 531.95$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 521.49$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 505.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 17c | 497.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 490.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 489.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 8c | 436.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 419.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 61c | 412.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 65c | 394.39$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 18c | 394.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 19c | 383.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 378.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 37c | 361.46$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 322.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 71c | 311.52$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 79c | 299.71$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 24c | 282.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.24 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 263.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 262$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 261.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 21c | 250.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 41c | 244.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 241.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 13c | 229.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…50aebacked Yes | 33c | 227.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 55c | 225.11$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 28c | 224.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 22c | 214.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 22c | 213.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 212.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…e044backed Yes | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 41c | 196$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 11c | 186.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 56c | 186.51$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…8b05backed Yes | 15c | 185.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 27c | 177$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…319abacked Yes | 11c | 176.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 26c | 166.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 165.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 43c | 163.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b37…8f10backed Yes | 19c | 159.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 19c | 154$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 20c | 149.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 28c | 148.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 19c | 140.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 137.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 21c | 134.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed No | 77c | 129.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 126.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 19c | 119.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 16c | 118.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…6daabacked Yes | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 80c | 111.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 19c | 107.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1014…b701backed Yes | 41c | 106.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…2ad7backed Yes | 23c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 14c | 103.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 36c | 99.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 12c | 96.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 73c | 95.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…d0efbacked Yes | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 49c | 91.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…06c1backed Yes | 19c | 91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 90.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bc…881fbacked Yes | 13c | 90.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.