Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0e782e2f60487fc53495a769f4559de745b5175113b8ffd197d038d170167e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,835 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 50,584$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 1c | 6,399$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…6140backed Yes | 1c | 2,070$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,841$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,811$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…c7fdbacked Yes | 2c | 882.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 865.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 855.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 642.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 590.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 564.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 6c | 501.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 464.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 444.62$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 28c | 397.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 13c | 370.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 57c | 349.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 12c | 340.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 9c | 325.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed Yes | 27c | 306.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5528…9079backed Yes | 7c | 297.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 263.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 255$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 228.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 216.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 203.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 7c | 198.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 7c | 189.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 11c | 175.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 11c | 172$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 13c | 137.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 11c | 135.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 132.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 127.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 41c | 120.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 119.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 11c | 118.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 114.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 22c | 114.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…e3dabacked Yes | 14c | 113$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…a4efbacked Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 34c | 105.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a61…64fcbacked Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe011…1a8ebacked Yes | 15c | 104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 19c | 102.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 101.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 101.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…ef6ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798b…d699backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 48c | 89.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…9a1cbacked Yes | 14c | 88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 44c | 84.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa2…5ab6backed Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…d5b1backed Yes | 17c | 83.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…9ab6backed Yes | 15c | 79.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 18c | 75.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…a650backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 19c | 68.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 16c | 68.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e2c2backed Yes | 16c | 66.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27a…f59fbacked Yes | 29c | 66.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 65.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…67fbbacked Yes | 16c | 63.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 34c | 62.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 22c | 57.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 27c | 54.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 77c | 47.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 45.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1ba2backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 47c | 38.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 42c | 34.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 39c | 26.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.