Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef8436832e2e9beee6be2d363f201048b59f5777de734960aaa8f7d3f65303f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,652 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 66c | 3,351$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.28 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 1,496$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 28c | 1,154$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.99 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 74c | 1,026$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 61c | 798.13$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.03 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 760.95$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 666.74$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 21c | 609.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.59 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 27c | 587.83$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 48c | 575.56$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.03 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 28c | 537.03$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.59 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 40c | 526.27$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.27 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 53c | 523.18$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 31c | 495.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 406.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 73c | 402.64$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 401.53$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 52c | 383.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 45c | 377.07$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.94 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 350.24$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 58c | 309.11$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.83 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 62c | 300$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…f448backed Yes | 67c | 296.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 77c | 293.49$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 70c | 287.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 21c | 285.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 13c | 280.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 70c | 274.37$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 79c | 271.43$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 46c | 263.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 47c | 262$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…b2e7backed Yes | 67c | 260.39$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 62c | 241.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 231.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 12c | 220.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 45c | 216.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 211.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 61c | 206.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 74c | 203.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 16c | 200.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…b87abacked No | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 197.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 196.82$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 52c | 188.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…698bbacked No | 42c | 188$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 13c | 185.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 183$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 46c | 177.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 79c | 175.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed No | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 49c | 169.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 79c | 167.13$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 157.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 21c | 154.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 57c | 152.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…5b37backed No | 40c | 151$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 67c | 150.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…108dbacked Yes | 57c | 148.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 79c | 140.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 61c | 137.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa3…d257backed No | 36c | 137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 34c | 136.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 134.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 17c | 134.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…48f5backed No | 46c | 129$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 53c | 127.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 38c | 123.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 63c | 123$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 120.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x03f2…1c5ebacked No | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 33c | 117.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 17c | 116.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 27c | 115.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 41c | 115.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 54c | 113.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 28c | 112.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 31c | 110.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798b…d699backed Yes | 41c | 109.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 31c | 105.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…4bcabacked Yes | 68c | 102.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 58c | 100.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…a793backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 58c | 99.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 65c | 98.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…8abcbacked Yes | 73c | 97.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 59c | 97.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…ed31backed No | 42c | 95.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…6140backed Yes | 53c | 94.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed Yes | 80c | 93.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 32c | 93.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…d930backed Yes | 38c | 91.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked No | 27c | 90.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.