MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x625ada579b92190f69cfea1abff321993a4465c5fd5b986264612ae12d7429ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 10,638$5,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,428.43 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 6,144$3,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,887.83 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 5,574$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 5,546$2,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 1,483$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.04 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 1,416$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 810$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.6 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 711.04$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 543.9$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.23 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 495.2$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.79 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 466$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.36 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 391.14$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.35 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a7…1fdbbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 299$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 214.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 181.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 156$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 143.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 118.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 113.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 112.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 112.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 105.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 90.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 89.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…5ccabacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 74.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 63.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 59.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 59.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 58.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 50.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 41.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 41.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 35.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Colorado Rockies | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 31.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 28.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…a063backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Colorado Rockies | 64c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-7.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.